You've got to be kidding yourself if you think the downturn in the USA (especially) and Europe is over. Sorry, recovery is not on the way.
The USA has a runaway deficit spending (with a current budget deficit of US$1.6 trillion), trillions of dollars in debt accumulation, and a big welfare state policy program that are killing the economy. Moreover, higher taxes, faltering or bankrupt state governments, high unemployment, stricter regulation, and massive money supply increases are making the coming demise even more severe. Short term fixes, stimulus packages, and bailout programs are not going to work. They just put off the inevitable and make the inevitable worse.
Every day is worse than the previous day. The news reports are proclaiming more socialism, more fascism, a deeper depression, more job losses, more bankruptcies, record foreclosures, and further deterioration of asset values in homes and retirement accounts. Then there are little nuisances at the back door like relatively toxic massive oil spills. Hyperinflation is lurking at the door too.
President Obama is hell-bent on pushing America into the abyss. Fear and uncertainty are commonplace. Obama eyes confiscating your retirement account and stopping or reducing the sale of firearms. Wealthier Americans are already leaving in record numbers, many of them renouncing their highly-taxed USA citizenship. More and more Americans are beginning to doubt the credibility of their politicians and the ability of political actors to bail them out of their troubles.
We have all seen in the past that politicians and top bureaucrats, people who may be evil but are probably not stupid (examples being Lincoln and Clinton), are remarkably adept at averting or at least postponing disaster. They often do this through creating a crisis which diverts attention by blaming economic woes on (1) terrorists, (2) environmental disasters, (3) incompetent or stupid "overpaid" corporate businessmen, (4) greedy capitalists, (5) the bad effects of illegal immigration, or (6) some other nebulous or unidentified foe (whether invented or greatly exaggerated). Then, during the crisis they allow the economic meltdown to occur but the masses remain loyal since they do not see the real culprits. As a result, the people reelect incumbent politicians to ensure uninterrupted "experienced leadership" during the debacle. Therefore, do not expect a major meltdown to be sudden or isolated. Expect it to come amidst a crisis like 9/11. Pay the closest attention to other things when the media is hyping some other problem or previously unrecognized enemy or social malady.
Don't be fooled. What is unmistakable is that the government of the USA has created a bunch of problems by its monetary and fiscal policies, and there will be hell to pay on account of them. They know this and will be looking for an opportune minute to alleviate the trouble. And you do not want to be caught in the USA when it all comes down.
How will the downturn affect Chile?
Chile is not perfect. It has its problems. But its economy is based in natural resources rather than services or manufacturing. And its regulatory structure, central banking system, and free market policies make it far more resilient to economic downturns than the USA, Asia or Europe.
Even in a depression people will need to eat Chile's fruits, salmon, wine, and fish. New interventionist programs in Asia, Europe and the USA (to boost public works and "create jobs") will increase demand for copper, paper, and lumber, causing a benefit for Chilean exporters. Thus, places like Chile should be net beneficiaries of the socialist policies of the USA. And I think that the Chilean Peso will become accepted (even if still not traded on international exchanges) as one of the world's strongest and most stable fiat currencies by the end of 2011. The currency's future track record is bound to be stellar.
Get out while you can. At least get your assets offshore.
I recommend that you get out of the USA while the getting is good. At a bare minimum, place substantial assets outside of the USA. Unless you are in the medical field or a innovative and pro-efficiency development industry (like maintenance, conservation, or creation of cost-saving devices), or you cater to the rich by planting gardens or painting mansions, you will have a rocky employment future in the USA over the coming years. That fact also means that there could be increased violence and personal danger in the USA: note that hungry and cold people become desperate people.
As I suggested in a blog entry in March 2009, take what you can now and invest in Chile. Make a life for yourself in Chile where things will be better than in the USA. Don't chicken out by making excuses or fantasizing that things will be just as bad everywhere else as they are in the USA. It's simply not true.
Why is Chile is better than other top-ten ranked countries?
In a recent post, I listed the freedom rankings which tout Chile as one of the best countries in the world. We all know the USA and Canada are inflated in those rankings so that the rankers living in those countries can “feel good” about where they live. The DSS, ATF, DEA, Family Court, and jack-booted local police forces in the USA (often brandishing their thug attitudes) are enough to belie any myth of freedom in the USA, and basically the same is true in Canada, NZ and Western Europe.
Highly-ranked Singapore is fascist socially. It is as low on my list as oppressive Saudi Arabia and Yemen.
Liechtenstein, with its spectacularly low 6% flat tax, is great. But it lets in something like 20 immigrants per year, all multi-millionaires.
Andorra or Monaco would be better postage stamp country choices but fat chance most people could ever get into either one except as a tourist. Unfortunately, most folks still have to work for many years. And that means they need to be able to find a good job.
Panama is fine if you do not mind living in a puny country with high crime and Third World issues. I like Panama. It is my present second-best place to live for people needing to earn a living. Indeed, many people are happy to put up with it on account of its many other benefits. But Panama is a relatively hard place to find a job with only one million people in its biggest city. You can probably open a pizza parlor or something in the service industry in many areas of Panama, if that sort of thing floats your boat.
Costa Rica is just a mainland retirement island. Hong Kong is expensive but by all means go there if you can get a great job and be ready to bail if China burps hard. Those who do not mind living outside of Western Culture might find luxurious Dubai and Bahrain attractive if they can find work there, but even those spots are experiencing some economic struggles lately.
I cannot think of anywhere to go in Africa and nowhere but Hong Kong in Asia either (the Thai babe appeal diminishes rapidly for those of us who are married, and Thai food is just as good elsewhere). Plus, do you really want to live in Eastern Culture, replete with its Hinduism, Buddhism and Islam? Think about it carefully.
One of my most avid blog readers is now living in New Zealand. Generally, it is a good choice but you have to put up with loads of political correctness and social leftism plus some very intrusive (and growing) Chinese elements.
I might have thought twice about Australia but I just hate the thought of living around so many deadly critters. And the place is unrepentant in its social welfarism too.
Forget about Switzerland. Way too expensive and too close to fascism in some areas of social policy.
That leaves Chile as the clear choice. Chile is different. It has elected five governments since Pinochet, all effectively centrist, and all more or less leaning left. Yet all of them have left the free market reforms of Pinochet's Chicago-boys intact, by and large. Some leftist tendencies in social policy have been manifested but very little compared to other places in the world. There is simply no comparison between economic freedom in Chile and most other places on earth.
How is Chile's economy doing now?
Chile's inflation is low and its stated unemployment rate is 8.8% (but much less in Santiago). The alleged 13% unemployment rate in Chile for blue collar sorts, if true, has been that way for many years (maybe 20 years). Strong economic growth has always occurred in spite of it, and this year Chile might attain GDP growth of 6%.
Chile is a relatively small country (17 million people), about the same size as Australia or the Netherlands, or a little bit smaller than Austria combined with Belgium, Sweden, Hungary, Portugal or the Czech Republic. Chile can easily export 100% of its mining, fishing and agricultural products to someone. All of its production is probably just a few week’s supply for China, for instance. Copper, Chile's leading export, will be used everywhere for construction that is especially strong under socialist make-work building programs.
Chile may fall at any moment, just as anywhere else in the world. But there are no such signs. Things are booming right now in spite of being recently affected by an 8.8 magnitude earthquake, the fifth largest in recorded history. The economic climate is not gloomy in Chile like the USA. Construction goes on. Real estate is strong. Mining and agriculture are good. All of those things without a fiat money and debt party boom. Can you think of any place in the world that even comes close to Chile (Hong Kong, some islands, and postage stamp states for the wealthy in Europe excepted)?
Can you get a airline seat at the last minute?
Do you think you can get of Dodge at the last minute? Unless you are going to sail down, doing so might be difficult. The main road is cut in Panama's (the east end is a cork bed), making driving your car down fairly difficult. There are flights to Santiago obviously, but my guess is that 80% of those seats are booked over a month in advance. How will you fare getting one of the remaining seats at the last minute when many others are scampering for them too?
You could also go to Europe or New Zealand first and catch a flight from there. Same with going to another Latin American country and trying to catch a flight, mainly from Sao Paulo, Ecuador, Bolivia, Peru or Venezuela. But that routing is usually very crowded already, making last-minute travel more difficult.
Nevertheless, considering only North American flights, if the aircraft used are mainly smaller Boeing 777s, Boeing 767s, or Airbus 340-300, the seating capacity will be 224 seats, 400 seats, or 335 seats respectively. If we were to take an average of those numbers (320) and multiply by 18 flights, there would be 5,760 airline seats to Santiago every day from North America. If 20% were available, there would be 1,152 chances for you to get on at the last minute. The USA has over 300 million people. If just 1/10th of 1% of them get pushed to the brink and try to get out, that's 300,000 people, or 260 times the number of seats available, what do you think will happen to the demand for (and price of) those 1,152 seats? The USA has a runaway deficit spending (with a current budget deficit of US$1.6 trillion), trillions of dollars in debt accumulation, and a big welfare state policy program that are killing the economy. Moreover, higher taxes, faltering or bankrupt state governments, high unemployment, stricter regulation, and massive money supply increases are making the coming demise even more severe. Short term fixes, stimulus packages, and bailout programs are not going to work. They just put off the inevitable and make the inevitable worse.
Every day is worse than the previous day. The news reports are proclaiming more socialism, more fascism, a deeper depression, more job losses, more bankruptcies, record foreclosures, and further deterioration of asset values in homes and retirement accounts. Then there are little nuisances at the back door like relatively toxic massive oil spills. Hyperinflation is lurking at the door too.
President Obama is hell-bent on pushing America into the abyss. Fear and uncertainty are commonplace. Obama eyes confiscating your retirement account and stopping or reducing the sale of firearms. Wealthier Americans are already leaving in record numbers, many of them renouncing their highly-taxed USA citizenship. More and more Americans are beginning to doubt the credibility of their politicians and the ability of political actors to bail them out of their troubles.
We have all seen in the past that politicians and top bureaucrats, people who may be evil but are probably not stupid (examples being Lincoln and Clinton), are remarkably adept at averting or at least postponing disaster. They often do this through creating a crisis which diverts attention by blaming economic woes on (1) terrorists, (2) environmental disasters, (3) incompetent or stupid "overpaid" corporate businessmen, (4) greedy capitalists, (5) the bad effects of illegal immigration, or (6) some other nebulous or unidentified foe (whether invented or greatly exaggerated). Then, during the crisis they allow the economic meltdown to occur but the masses remain loyal since they do not see the real culprits. As a result, the people reelect incumbent politicians to ensure uninterrupted "experienced leadership" during the debacle. Therefore, do not expect a major meltdown to be sudden or isolated. Expect it to come amidst a crisis like 9/11. Pay the closest attention to other things when the media is hyping some other problem or previously unrecognized enemy or social malady.
Don't be fooled. What is unmistakable is that the government of the USA has created a bunch of problems by its monetary and fiscal policies, and there will be hell to pay on account of them. They know this and will be looking for an opportune minute to alleviate the trouble. And you do not want to be caught in the USA when it all comes down.
How will the downturn affect Chile?
Chile is not perfect. It has its problems. But its economy is based in natural resources rather than services or manufacturing. And its regulatory structure, central banking system, and free market policies make it far more resilient to economic downturns than the USA, Asia or Europe.
Even in a depression people will need to eat Chile's fruits, salmon, wine, and fish. New interventionist programs in Asia, Europe and the USA (to boost public works and "create jobs") will increase demand for copper, paper, and lumber, causing a benefit for Chilean exporters. Thus, places like Chile should be net beneficiaries of the socialist policies of the USA. And I think that the Chilean Peso will become accepted (even if still not traded on international exchanges) as one of the world's strongest and most stable fiat currencies by the end of 2011. The currency's future track record is bound to be stellar.
Get out while you can. At least get your assets offshore.
I recommend that you get out of the USA while the getting is good. At a bare minimum, place substantial assets outside of the USA. Unless you are in the medical field or a innovative and pro-efficiency development industry (like maintenance, conservation, or creation of cost-saving devices), or you cater to the rich by planting gardens or painting mansions, you will have a rocky employment future in the USA over the coming years. That fact also means that there could be increased violence and personal danger in the USA: note that hungry and cold people become desperate people.
As I suggested in a blog entry in March 2009, take what you can now and invest in Chile. Make a life for yourself in Chile where things will be better than in the USA. Don't chicken out by making excuses or fantasizing that things will be just as bad everywhere else as they are in the USA. It's simply not true.
Why is Chile is better than other top-ten ranked countries?
In a recent post, I listed the freedom rankings which tout Chile as one of the best countries in the world. We all know the USA and Canada are inflated in those rankings so that the rankers living in those countries can “feel good” about where they live. The DSS, ATF, DEA, Family Court, and jack-booted local police forces in the USA (often brandishing their thug attitudes) are enough to belie any myth of freedom in the USA, and basically the same is true in Canada, NZ and Western Europe.
Highly-ranked Singapore is fascist socially. It is as low on my list as oppressive Saudi Arabia and Yemen.
Liechtenstein, with its spectacularly low 6% flat tax, is great. But it lets in something like 20 immigrants per year, all multi-millionaires.
Andorra or Monaco would be better postage stamp country choices but fat chance most people could ever get into either one except as a tourist. Unfortunately, most folks still have to work for many years. And that means they need to be able to find a good job.
Panama is fine if you do not mind living in a puny country with high crime and Third World issues. I like Panama. It is my present second-best place to live for people needing to earn a living. Indeed, many people are happy to put up with it on account of its many other benefits. But Panama is a relatively hard place to find a job with only one million people in its biggest city. You can probably open a pizza parlor or something in the service industry in many areas of Panama, if that sort of thing floats your boat.
Costa Rica is just a mainland retirement island. Hong Kong is expensive but by all means go there if you can get a great job and be ready to bail if China burps hard. Those who do not mind living outside of Western Culture might find luxurious Dubai and Bahrain attractive if they can find work there, but even those spots are experiencing some economic struggles lately.
I cannot think of anywhere to go in Africa and nowhere but Hong Kong in Asia either (the Thai babe appeal diminishes rapidly for those of us who are married, and Thai food is just as good elsewhere). Plus, do you really want to live in Eastern Culture, replete with its Hinduism, Buddhism and Islam? Think about it carefully.
One of my most avid blog readers is now living in New Zealand. Generally, it is a good choice but you have to put up with loads of political correctness and social leftism plus some very intrusive (and growing) Chinese elements.
I might have thought twice about Australia but I just hate the thought of living around so many deadly critters. And the place is unrepentant in its social welfarism too.
Forget about Switzerland. Way too expensive and too close to fascism in some areas of social policy.
That leaves Chile as the clear choice. Chile is different. It has elected five governments since Pinochet, all effectively centrist, and all more or less leaning left. Yet all of them have left the free market reforms of Pinochet's Chicago-boys intact, by and large. Some leftist tendencies in social policy have been manifested but very little compared to other places in the world. There is simply no comparison between economic freedom in Chile and most other places on earth.
How is Chile's economy doing now?
Chile's inflation is low and its stated unemployment rate is 8.8% (but much less in Santiago). The alleged 13% unemployment rate in Chile for blue collar sorts, if true, has been that way for many years (maybe 20 years). Strong economic growth has always occurred in spite of it, and this year Chile might attain GDP growth of 6%.
Chile is a relatively small country (17 million people), about the same size as Australia or the Netherlands, or a little bit smaller than Austria combined with Belgium, Sweden, Hungary, Portugal or the Czech Republic. Chile can easily export 100% of its mining, fishing and agricultural products to someone. All of its production is probably just a few week’s supply for China, for instance. Copper, Chile's leading export, will be used everywhere for construction that is especially strong under socialist make-work building programs.
Chile may fall at any moment, just as anywhere else in the world. But there are no such signs. Things are booming right now in spite of being recently affected by an 8.8 magnitude earthquake, the fifth largest in recorded history. The economic climate is not gloomy in Chile like the USA. Construction goes on. Real estate is strong. Mining and agriculture are good. All of those things without a fiat money and debt party boom. Can you think of any place in the world that even comes close to Chile (Hong Kong, some islands, and postage stamp states for the wealthy in Europe excepted)?
Can you get a airline seat at the last minute?
Do you think you can get of Dodge at the last minute? Unless you are going to sail down, doing so might be difficult. The main road is cut in Panama's (the east end is a cork bed), making driving your car down fairly difficult. There are flights to Santiago obviously, but my guess is that 80% of those seats are booked over a month in advance. How will you fare getting one of the remaining seats at the last minute when many others are scampering for them too?
Consider the limitations of airline service from North America to Santiago. There is one flight a day from Los Angeles, two from New York, nine from Miami (five on Lan/AA; the others have stopovers), one from Dallas, one from Atlanta, two from Mexico City, and two from Toronto. The carriers are American Airlines, Lan Chile, Copa, Taca/Lacsa, Avianca, Aerolineas Argentinas, TAM, Aeromexico, Delta and Air Canada. That makes a total of perhaps 18 daily flights that you might be able to get on. See the list of daily international arrivals to SCL at this link. The ones from North America (excluding code shares but including stopover cities from flights originating from LAX or Miami, like Panama, Bogota and San Jose, Costa Rica) are listed below.
| 02:30:00 |  | TPU 021 | SAN JOSE | Santiago de Chile | Santiago de Chile | |
| 04:25:00 |  | AVA 097 | BOGOTA | |||
| 04:29:00 |  | CMP 437 | PANAMA | |||
| 05:54:00 |  | LAN 601 | L. ANGELES | |||
| 06:08:00 | | LAN 501 | MIAMI | Santiago de Chile | Santiago de Chile | |
| same flight |  | AAL 7701 | MIAMI | |||
| 06:47:00 | | LAN 533 | TORONTO | |||
| 06:47:00 | | AAL 7718 | TORONTO | |||
| 07:00:00 | | LAN 503 | MIAMI | |||
| same flight | | AAL 7703 | MIAMI | |||
| 07:42:00 | DELTA | DAL 147 | ATLANTA | |||
| 07:45:00 | | LAN 9631 | DALLAS | |||
| same flight | | AAL 945 | DALLAS | |||
| 08:33:00 | | LAN 621 | MEXICO D.F | Santiago de Chile | ||
| same flight |  | AMX 9121 | MEXICO D.F | |||
| 08:41:00 | | AAL 957 | MIAMI | |||
| same flight | | LAN 9503 | MIAMI | |||
| 09:30:00 |  | ARG 1282 | B. AIRES | Santiago de Chile | Santiago de Chile | |
| 10:40:00 | | LAN 587 | MIAMI | |||
| 11:32:00 |  | TAM 8216 | SAO PAULO | |||
| 11:49:00 |  | ACA 092 | TORONTO | |||
| 12:09:00 | | LAN 531 | NEW YORK | |||
| same flight | | AAL 7711 | NEW YORK | |||
| 19:15:00 | | CMP 751 | PANAMA | |||
| 20:16:00 | | LAN 571 | MIAMI | |||
| 21:55:00 | | LAN 5481 | MEXICO D.F | |||
| same flight | | AMX 010 | MEXICO D.F | Santiago de Chile | Santiago de Chile |
Do you remember the pictures of the last planes leaving Saigon in April 1975, with lots of people screaming to get on board, waiving fists full of soon-to-be-worthless fiat currency as potential payment? How many of them got on? There is a story that says only the people who offered gold coins made it on. The rest were left behind to suffer the consequences. What will your chances be once you need to get out of the USA in a pinch?
So how about you?
Don't have a lot of assets or a job in Chile? See this post for an alternative.
Are you a "true believer" in America? Is the country really indestructible?
Will you wait until the last minute?
Get out while the getting is good.
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